Does how late you enter the Love Island villa affect your chances? A super scientific study 2 months ago

Does how late you enter the Love Island villa affect your chances? A super scientific study

I am a woman in STEM.

Love Island season is upon us, and 12 new contestants are on their way into the villa as we speak.

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Any seasoned viewer will know however that this group of contestants is not the final Love Island lineup. Over the next few weeks, plenty more islanders will enter the villa with the hopes of finding love. We're talking bombshells, Casa Amor babes and a few late entries to shake things up before the finale.

There seems to be pros and cons to entering the villa at various points. If you're a starter, you set the first impression, and have a decent chance of forming that initial bond with the viewer. However, your air-time is split with 11 others, and while you're likely to stick around for a good chunk of the show, there's no guarantee of that either. Last year, for instance, poor Shannon Singh got dumped on Day 2.

Next we have the bombshells. Unlike the early starters, these guys get all the attention on their arrival, which allows them to make a splash. Mind you, they can be framed as being potentially threatening to existing relationships, and without that initial bonding with the viewers from Day 1, fans may chose to stay loyal to the early starters and exhibit some hostility towards the newcomers.

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At the halfway mark of the show or so, the boys jet off to Casa Amor, while a rake of new lads come in to get to know the girls. Like the bombshells, these folks may receive hostility from fans. However, we may also root for them if we feel that they're a better fit for anyone in a rocky coupling.

Finally, we have, who I categorise as, the late bombshells. These guys, in my opinion, get the rough end of the deal. They don't have that loyalty the earlier contestants have, and by the time they enter, there's not a lot of time to either get grafting or win votes from fans.

But is there a perfect day to enter the villa to guarantee success? Well, that will depend on what you define as a successful Love Island stint. With that in mind, I have identified three branches of Love Island success: winning, star power, and finding love.

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Now, full disclosure, I'm not really a woman in STEM. In fact, I'm pretty bad at maths, and this research was carried out mostly on my phone's calculator app, but to be honest, I think it's pretty ground-breaking, and if MENSA fancy getting in touch that'd be cool.

1. Winning

When we take a look back at who has won the series to date, the majority are early starters. Here are the winners so far, and what day they both entered on:

  • Season one - Jess Hayes (day 1,) and Max Morley (day 14)
  • Season two - Cara De La Hoyde (day 1) and Nathan Massey (day 1)
  • Season three - Amber Davies (day 1) and Kem Cetinay (day 1)
  • Season four - Dani Dyer (day 1) and Jack Fincham (day 1)
  • Season five - Amber Gill (day 1) and Greg O'Shea (day 44)
  • Season six - Paige Turley (day 1) and Finn Tapp (day 5)
  • Season seven Millie Grace Court (day 9) and Liam Reardon (day 4)
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Here, we see that more day-oners have won the show than those who entered later, but the average entry point of winners is technically day 6.

2. Star Power

One side effect of going on Love Island is newfound fame, influence, and Instagram followers, which undoubtedly sweetens the deal for contestants. The show gave some of today's biggest influencers a huge boost to their career. For the purpose of this category, I'm using Instagram followers as an indication of their star power, and we're looking at the top 10 most followed Love Island alumni. They are:

  • Molly-Mae Hague (day 4, 6.3 million)
  • Tommy Fury (day 1, 4.1 million)
  • Maura Higgins (day 10, 3.4 million)
  • Dani Dyer (day 1, 3.6 million)
  • Olivia Bowen (day 1, 2.9 million)
  • Amber Gill (day 1, 2.6 million)
  • Kem Cetinay (day 1, 2.5 million)
  • Dr Alex George (day 1, 2 million)
  • Millie Grace Court (day 9, 1.9 million)
  • Jack Fincham (day 1, 1.8 million).
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We definitely see a strong correlation between entering on day 1 and amassing a large following. However, the fact that Molly-Mae towers over the other alumni by over 2 million has to count for something as well, though she may just be an outlier. In any case, if we take the average of these figures we get day 3, which suggests that those who enter early tend to do better as far as Instagram follow-counts are concerned.

3. Finding Love

We mustn't forget that the whole premise of Love Island is to find your soulmate, so this has to factor into our analysis here. While the majority of couples who met on the show have split, many are still together and some have even started families of their own. Also, for the purpose of this category, I have only included couples who got together on their season, which is why Lucie Donlon and Luke Mabbott are excluded.

The relationships that lasted are thus:

  • Mille Grace Court (day 9) and Liam Reardon (day 4)
  • Chloe Burrows (day 2) and Toby Aromolaran (day 1)
  • Faye Winter (day 1) and Teddy Soares (day 12)
  • Eva Zapico (day 23) and Nas Majeed (day 1)
  • Paige Turley (day 1) and Finn Tapp (day 5)
  • Molly Smith (day 23) and Callum Jones (day 1)
  • Molly-Mae Hague (day 4) and Tommy Fury (day 1)
  • Jess Shears (day 1) and Dom Lever (day 1)
  • Camilla Thurlow (day 1) and Jamie Jewitt (day 32)
  • Cara De La Hoyde (day 1) and Nathan Massey (day 1)
  • Olivia Bowen (day 1) and Alex Bowen (day 18)

Again, it would appear that those who entered the villa on day 1 seem to have a better chance at finding a love that lasts, but when all these figures are taken together, the average best day to enter the villa if you have your heart set on finding love is day day 8.2.

Conclusion

The only contestant to appear in all three categories is Millie Grace Court, who entered the villa as an early bombshell on day 9, though several of them present in two of the above - Paige Turley (day 1), Finn Tapp (day 5), Cara De La Hoyde (day 1), Nathan Massey (day 1), Olivia Bowen (day 1), Amber Gill (day 1) Kem Cetinay (day 1), Molly-Mae Hague (day 4) and Tommy Fury (day 1). If we use these figures to come to a conclusion, then the best day to enter the villa is day 2.5.

Moreover, if we want to calculate the average of the 3 categories, we get to a slightly later stage in the competition - day 15.2. However, when you compare this to the mode, which is day 1, my super thorough research would suggest that those who enter either on day 1, or as an early bombshell stand the best chances of success in Love Island.